Meta分析在矿集区成矿信息权重值比较中的应用
Application of ore-searching information, weight comparison to the ore concentration area based on meta-analysis
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摘要: 提要:矿集区内隐伏矿综合定位预测方法已成为找矿预测领域的研究热点。矿床矿点的形成是由多种非线性成矿因素综合作用的结果,多属性模糊优选决策模型(FOMMAD)是解决这类问题的有效工具。寻找一个科学合理的属性权重确定方法,是FOMMAD能否成功实施的关键。首次应用Meta分析方法对地层、接触带、断裂、蚀变、构造交汇处5种找矿信息的权重进行了定量比较研究。在此基础上,运用FOMMAD及模糊层次分析法(FAHP),在研究区圈定了12个成矿有利度较高的靶区。验证结果表明,基于Meta分析与FOMMAD模型的多元找矿信息综合预测模型得到的成矿有利度可作为研究区找矿预测的综合标志。Abstract: Abstract:The integrated prognosis of concealed ore deposit location has become a heated research field. The formation of the mineral deposit or ore spot is a non-linear process affected by many ore-controlling factors. The fuzzy optimization model of multi-attribute decision-making is an efficient method for dealing with such a problem. However, the creation of FOMMAD is not an easy thing. It is a key problem to find a scientific and reasonable method for attribute weight. Meta-analysis is a very comprehensive statistical method that systematically combines, analyzes and comprehensively evaluates several relevant trials. It has been applied generally to medical problems,and its statistical methods are developing day by day. Hence meta-analysis can provide reasonably scientific approach to attribute weight. In this paper, the principle and feasibility of the meta-analysis for metallogenic prediction were analyzed and demonstrated, and Tianmashan-Jingkouling-Tongguanshan area was chosen as the study area. Meta-analysis is applied in quantitative comparison of availability of five explorations for the first time. In the end, a comprehensive evaluation model for environmental quality at tourism sites was established based on analytic hierarchy process, Delphi Law, and the multi-level fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, and the environmental quality of the Zhangjiajie National Forest Park was evaluated. The authors made the multivariate metallogenic information synthetic prediction and evaluation to the study area, integrated the geological analysis results, and delineated 12 target areas which had high advantage degree in metallogenic conditions. Compared with the other relevant materials and outdoors verification, it is shown that the application of this kind of model to delineating target areas is highly effective in ore-prospecting work.
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Keywords:
- meta-analysis /
- ore-searching information /
- weight /
- FOMMAD /
- deep prospecting prediction /
- FAHP
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1. 研究目的(Objective)
中国从2009年开展页岩气实质勘探以来,已在四川盆地上奥陶统五峰组(O3w)—下志留统龙马溪组(S1l)海相页岩成功实现页岩气商业开发,成为世界上少数几个实现页岩气工业开采的国家之一,近年来掀起了页岩气研究的热潮。国内学者在页岩气的形成、演化、保存和成藏等方面取得诸多突破,同时也遇到诸多科学难题,如地质条件下页岩的成烃演化规律、页岩气乙烷碳同位素与干酪根碳同位素差异较大、页岩气烷烃气碳同位素倒转等,究其原因是页岩气组分单一,难以获取较多的地球化学信息。川南五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩中含H2S天然气的发现(N201-H1井,H2S含量=0.42%),激发了笔者探索海相页岩气中H2S成因的兴趣。本文力争从海相页岩中找出H2S形成的地质、地球化学证据,尤其成烃演化过程中伴随的TSR证据,并探讨TSR与页岩气地球化学异常的关系。
2. 研究方法(Methods)
通过野外地质调查,系统采集重庆高谷剖面五峰组—龙马溪组含黄铁矿富有机质页岩,开展TOC测定、全岩X衍射分析、岩石薄片鉴定、扫描电镜与能谱分析、次生方解石碳同位素分析、方解石中包裹体分析。利用有机无机相结合的研究手段,重点关注页岩中黄铁矿的赋存形态、与有机质和无机矿物的共生关系,进而明确黄铁矿可能的成因类型。所有分析测试和研究工作均在页岩油气富集机理与有效开发国家重点实验室完成。
3. 研究结果(Results)
五峰组—龙马溪组样品(15件)的TOC介于1.6%~4.5%,均值为2.8%,岩矿分析结果显示为硅质页岩,黄铁矿含量介于4.5%~7.3%。多数样品中可见草莓状黄铁矿集合体零星或呈层状分布,粒径主要介于5~10 μm(11件),个别样品中可见笔石黄铁矿化现象,其中的黄铁矿多为草莓状黄铁矿(3件)。在五峰组的2件样品中发现黄铁矿-石膏-方解石的共生脉体顺层发育,肉眼和镜下可见矿铁矿晶体呈立方体(图 1a),从矿物之间的接触关系看,石膏最先形成,边缘有明显的溶蚀迹象,其次是黄铁矿,再是方解石(图 1b);脉体上下页岩层中方解石碳同位素介于-0.5‰~-2.4‰,均值为-1.6‰(4件),脉体中挑选出来的方解石碳同位素介于-5.2‰~-9.6‰,均值为-7.5‰(6件),明显轻于页岩中的方解石碳同位素;脉体方解石中赋存气-液包裹体均一温度介于103℃~148℃,集中在135℃附近(12个点)。
沉积岩中黄铁矿的硫源主要源自H2S,而H2S主要成因为细菌硫酸盐还原作用(BSR)、热化学硫酸盐还原作用(TSR)和含硫有机质裂解作用(TDR)。五峰组—龙马溪组页岩中受控于原始有机质分布的草莓状黄铁矿属于同生期的BSR成因,而五峰组中发现的脉体具备TSR发生的物质和能量条件,辅以混入有机碳源的次生方解石证据,可以推断该区富有机质页岩成烃演化过程中发生过TSR反应,但由于H2S形成后极易与页岩中的金属离子结合而以硫化物的形式沉淀下来,导致现今海相页岩气藏中普遍不含和微含硫化氢,但是其对页岩气地球化学特征的影响不容忽视。已有模拟实验证明,可溶有机质裂解过程中TSR会导致烷烃气碳同位素序列倒转,因此,五峰组—龙马溪组页岩气碳同位素倒转可能与TSR有关。
4. 结论(Conclusions)
(1) 四川盆地五峰组—龙马溪组富有机质页岩层段普遍发育黄铁矿,其中大部分为受控于原始有机质分布的草莓状黄铁矿,为BSR成因;特殊的矿物组合、次生方解石碳同位素偏轻和包裹体均一温度表明部分黄铁矿为有机质成烃演化过程中的TSR成因。
(2) 硫化氢遇到金属离子极易以硫化物的形式沉淀下来,所以同生期BSR形成的硫化氢很难保存至今,现今页岩气藏中的硫化氢最可能是TSR形成。TSR不仅可以改变页岩气化学组成,还可能是导致页岩气碳同位素倒转的重要因素,值得进一步深入研究。
5. 致谢(Acknowledgement)
本文为国家自然科学基金项目“页岩解析气碳同位素分馏特征及其指示意义研究”(41503033)、石油化工联合基金重点项目“古生界页岩含气性原生有机质控制作用研究”(U1663202)和“海相含膏盐岩层系烃源岩发育特征与生烃潜力评价”(U1663201)的资助成果。
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