Water resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its co-evolution trend with social economy: A comparative study with the international bay area
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摘要:
粤港澳大湾区（以下简称大湾区）水资源现状及其演化规律关系到该区社会经济的高质量发展。本文对大湾区"9市+2区"近10年的社会经济与水资源现状及其协同演化规律进行分析研究。结果显示：目前大湾区供水主要依赖地表水，水资源的分布与区域经济发展不协调，作为区域发展核心引擎的香港、澳门、深圳（极度缺水）以及广州（重度缺水）人均水资源量过低。广州、佛山、中山、东莞（>80%）以及深圳（>40%）水资源开发利用程度高，水资源供需压力大。通过归因分析得到大湾区的水资源利用现状与社会经济的协同规律：产业结构影响用水结构以及水资源开发利用程度，控制用水效率。区域内产业结构与发展趋势，及其与世界湾区的对比分析验证了产业结构理论中的"配第-克拉克定理"。随着大湾区经济持续的发展与产业结构优化，大湾区用水效率将提高，人均用水量会逐步降低。同时城市公共用水、生活用水需求量将持续上升，需确保大湾区供水设施，供水量及供水安全满足未来社会经济发展需求。
Abstract:The current situation and evolution of water resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is crucial to the high-quality development of the region's social economy. The study focuses on the current situation of water resources in the "9 Cities +2 Municipalities" of the Greater Bay Area in recent ten years and its co-evolution trend with social economy. The results show that the present water supply in the Greater Bay Area mainly relies on surface water, and the distribution of water resources is not equilibrated with regional economic development. As the core engine of regional development, Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen (extremely short of water) and Guangzhou (severely short of water) have a low per capita water resources. Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhongshan, Dongguan (>80%) and Shenzhen (>40%) have a high degree of water resources development and utilization, and the pressure of water resources supply and demand is large. The synergetic law between the current situation of water resources utilization and social economy in the Greater Bay area, resulted from attribution analysis, indicates that industrial structure influences the water consumption structure and controls the water consumption efficiency. The industrial structure and development trend in the region and the comparative analysis with the bay area in the world verify the "Petty Clark theorem" in the theory of industrial structure. With the continuous economic development of the Greater Bay Area, the industrial structure will be optimized forward, water consumption efficiency will increase, and per capita water consumption will gradually decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for urban public water and domestic water will continue to rise, and the water supply facilities, water quality and water supply security in the Greater Bay Area need to be ensured to meet the future social and economic development demands.
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图 2 大湾区人口（a）及人均GDP（b）分布情况
Figure 2. Distribution of population(a) and GDP per capita (b) in the Greater Bay Area
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图 3 大湾区水资源总量（a）人均水资源量（b）
Figure 3. Total water resources (a) and per capita water resources (b) in the Greater Bay Area
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图 4 大湾区人均用水量（a）及水资源开发利用程度（b）
Figure 4. Per capita water consumption (a) and degree of water resources development and utilization (b) in the Greater Bay Area
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图 5 大湾区用水结构（a）万元GDP用水量（b）
Figure 5. Water consumption structure (a) and water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP (b) in the Greater Bay Area
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图 6 人均用水量（a）以及水资源开发利用程度（b）与人均水资源量的关系
Figure 6. The relationship between per capita water resources and per capita water consumption (a) and degree of water resource exploration and utilization (b)
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图 7 珠三角九市产业结构（a）、用水结构（b）、用水效率（c）以及用水量（d）
Figure 7. Industrial structure (a), water consumption structure (b), water consumption efficiency (c) and water consumption (d) of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta
表 2 珠三角九市供水量及供水结构
Table 2 Water supply and water supply structure of nine cities in Pearl River Delta
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表 3 珠三角9市农业亩均灌溉用水量及万元工业增加值用水量（m3）
Table 3 The irrigation water consumption per Mu of agriculture and the water consumption per ten thousand yuan of added industrial value in the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta(m3)
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表 5 国际湾区经济、人口以及产业对比
Table 5 Comparison of economy, population and industry of international bay area
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表 6 国际湾区水资源情况综合对比
Table 6 Comprehensive comparison of water resources in the international bay area
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