Evaluation of fault slip probability of geothermal large-scale development: A case study of deep karst geothermal reservoir in Xiong'an New Area
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摘要:
雄安新区地热资源丰富，具有广阔的规模化开发利用前景，对于实现"绿色雄安"具有重要意义。许多学者的研究集中在地质结构探测、地热资源量评价、地壳稳定性等方面，关于深部岩溶热储规模化开发可能引起的断层滑动研究薄弱。本文在地热地质综合调查的基础上，基于地质力学理论，采用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，评价雄安新区主要断层特征(走向、倾角、滑动摩擦系数等)、地应力分布(孔隙压力、最大/最小/垂直主应力大小及方向等)，量化雄安新区天然断层在规模化开发利用情况下的激活可能性，结果显示已探明断层在天然、规模化回灌和水力压裂条件下的最大滑动趋势分别为0.26、0.27和0.40，地热开发不会引起断层激活。本研究树立了地热规模化开发的信心，可为雄安新区地热资源安全利用提供支撑。
Abstract:Xiongan New Area is rich in geothermal resources and has broad prospects for large-scale development and utilization, which is of great significance to the realization of "green Xiongan". Many scholars have focused their research on geological structure exploration, resource evaluation, crustal stability, etc. However, the study on the possible fault sliding caused by the large-scale development of deep karst thermal storage is weak. On the basis of geomechanical theory and geothermal geological survey, Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method was used to evaluate the characteristics of main faults (strike, dip, slip friction coefficient, etc.) and geostress distribution (pore pressure, maximum/minimum/vertical principal stress magnitude and direction, etc.) in Xiongan New area for quantifying the activation possibility of natural faults under large-scale development and utilization. The results show that the maximum slip trends of proven faults under natural, large-scale recharge and hydraulic fracturing conditions are 0.26, 0.27 and 0.40, respectively. Geothermal development will not cause fault activation. The study establishes confidence in geothermal development and provides support for safe geothermal use in Xiong'an New Area.
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图 1 雄安新区地理位置和断层分布图
Figure 1. Geographic location and distribution of faults in Xiongan New Area
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图 4 天然断层滑动趋势累积分布图
Figure 4. Cumulative distribution map of natural fault sliding trend
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图 6 孔隙压力扰动（2 MPa）下的滑动趋势累积分布图
Figure 6. Cumulative distribution plot of sliding trend under pore pressure disturbance (2 MPa)
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图 7 孔隙压力变化对断层稳定性影响
（每条曲线代表一条断层）
Figure 7. Effect of pore pressure variations on fault stability
(every curve representing a fault)
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