Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of surface evapotranspiration in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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摘要:
分析地表蒸散发时空变化规律及驱动因素，对促进区域水资源的科学分配、做好生态系统水源保护具有重要意义。本文基于MOD16蒸散发遥感数据产品，采用趋势分析及显著性检验法，深入分析了近20年三江平原地表蒸散量的时空变化特征，根据Penman-Monteith公式选取与地表蒸散量(ET)相关的驱动因子，分析各驱动因子对地表蒸散量变化的影响，并构建岭回归统计模型，分析研究地表蒸散量变化的主要驱动因子及其相对贡献率。结果表明：近20年三江平原地表蒸散发(ET)年际起伏特征明显，整体呈上升趋势；研究区内91.53%的地区ET呈增加趋势，且ET分布的地域差异逐年缩小；年内ET呈单峰型周期性变化，季节差异性明显；研究区坡度对ET有正向影响，高程和风速对ET有负向影响；气温、日照时数、降水量及NDVI与ET均呈正相关性，其中降水量与ET相关性最为显著；构建岭回归驱动分析模型的决定系数R2为0.823，能够有效解释各驱动因素与ET的关系。模型计算结果表明：降水量和植被覆盖度对三江平原地表蒸散量影响较大，是影响地表蒸散量变化的主要驱动力。
Abstract:It is of great significance for analyzing the spatiotemporal variation law of surface evapotranspiration and its driving factors to promote the scientific allocation of regional water resources and to do a good job of ecological water source protection. Based on MOD16 ET remote sensing data, trend analysis and significance test method were adopted to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of surface evapotranspiration in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years. According to Penman-Monteith formula, driving factors related to surface evapotranspiration (ET) were selected to analyze the influence of driving factors on the change of surface evapotranspiration. Ridge regression statistical model was built to analyze the main driving factors of evapotranspiration change and their relative contribution rates. The results show that the interannual fluctuation characteristics of surface evapotranspiration (ET) in the Sanjiang Plain were obvious in recent 20 years, and the overall trend of ET was increasing. ET in 91.53% of the study area shows an increasing trend, and the regional differences of ET distribution decreased year by year. The annual ET shows unimodal periodical variation, and the seasonal difference is obvious. Slope in the study area has a positive effect on ET, while elevation and wind speed have a negative effect. Temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation and NDVI are positively correlated with ET, and precipitation has the most significant correlation with ET. The determination coefficient R2 of ridge regression driving analysis model is 0.823, which can effectively explain the relationship between various driving factors and ET. The results of model calculation show that precipitation and vegetation coverage have a great influence on the surface evapotranspiration in Sanjiang Plain and are the main driving forces for the change of surface evapotranspiration.
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图 2 近20年三江平原ET均值空间分布图
Figure 2. Spatial distribution of ET mean value in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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图 3 近20年三江平原ET年际变化趋势图
Figure 3. Interannual variation trend of ET in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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图 4 近20年三江平原ET变化趋势空间分布图
Figure 4. Spatial distribution map of ET variation trend in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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图 5 近20年三江平原ET月均值变化趋势图
Figure 5. Change trend of monthly mean ET in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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图 6 近20年三江平原四季平均ET空间分布图
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of seasonal mean ET in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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图 7 三江平原高程分级ET统计图
Figure 7. ET statistics of elevation classification in Sanjiang Plain
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图 9 近20年三江平原风速、气温、日照时数及降水量月均值变化趋势图
Figure 9. Monthly mean changes of wind speed, temperature, sunshine duration and precipitation in Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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图 10 三江平原ET与风速（a）气温（b）、日照时数（c）、降水量（d）相关性系数空间分布图
Figure 10. Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between ET and wind speed (a), temperature (b), sunshine duration (c) and precipitation (d) in Sanjiang Plain
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图 11 近20年三江平原ET与NDVI月均值变化趋势图
Figure 11. Changes of monthly mean values of ET and NDVI in the Sanjiang Plain in recent 20 years
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图 12 三江平原NDVI均值空间分布图（a）及ET与NDVI相关性系数空间分布图（b）
Figure 12. Spatial distribution of mean NDVI in Sanjiang Plain (a) and spatial distribution of correlation coefficient between ET and NDVI (b)
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图 14 驱动因子贡献率统计图
Figure 14. Statistical chart of the contribution rate of driving factors
表 2 高程分级地表蒸散量统计
Table 2 Statistics of surface evapotranspiration in elevation classification
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