Characteristics and demand analysis of silver resources in China under the background of new energy
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摘要:研究目的
银作为重要的贵金属，兼具工业属性和金融属性，对促进国家经济和社会发展至关重要。系统性地分析中国银矿资源特征，研究未来需求趋势，对中国银产业减排布局、资源安全具有重要意义。
研究方法本文从银产业发展的角度入手，通过分析中国银的应用、地质、供需和市场等特征，总结了中国银矿的资源现状。根据工业银和非工业银的需求驱动差异，运用S−curve和ARIMA模型预测了2022—2035年中国银的需求。
研究结果根据银矿的资源现状和需求预测结果，得出如下认识：（1）中国银矿具有“四多四少”的地质特征，即总量多、可利用资源少；小矿多、大矿少；贫矿多、富矿少；共伴生矿床多，独立矿床少；（2）随着银应用领域的不断增长，国内的矿山资源和再生资源已经不能满足需求，需进口银矿产品和其他精矿（用于生产副产银，如铅精矿、锌精矿等）来补充缺口；（3）2022—2035年，中国银的需求将持续增长，从5800 t增长到9500 t，年均增长率约为3.7%；（4）2022—2035年，中国工业银需求将迎来较快增长，从3800 t增长到7000 t，年均增长率为4.4%，光伏是拉动工业银需求增长的主要领域；（5）2022—2035年，中国非工业银的需求将缓慢增长，从2000 t增长到2500 t，年均增长率为1.7%。
结论基于以上研究，为了更好地促进银产业发展，提出如下建议：（1）高度重视并提升银在未来国民经济中的地位和作用；（2）多手段保障银矿资源供应能力；（3）加大技术创新，开展深加工，提高工业银的产品附加值，为能源转型和高端制造提供保障；（4）建立国家与民间双重银储备与保障体系，避免银价大起大落。
创新点:（1）根据中国银的消费特点，运用S−curve和ARIMA模型预测了中国银的需求；（2）总结提出了发达国家工业银消费的两期“S”形波次递进规律，并将该规律应用于中国工业银的需求预测。
Abstract:This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
ObjectiveSilver, as an important precious metal, has both industrial and financial properties and is crucial to promote national economic and social development. It is important to systematically analyze the characteristics of silver resources and demand trends for emission reduction and resource security in China.
MethodsFrom the perspective of the development of the silver industry, the characteristics of the application, geology, supply and demand and market of silver are summarized in China. According to the demand driven difference between industrial silver and non−industrial silver, the demand of silver is predicted using S−curve and ARIMA models in China from 2022 to 2035.
ResultsBased on the resource status and demand forecast results of silver mines, the following results are obtained: (1) Silver mines have the geological characteristics of "four more and four less". It means that the total amount of resources is large and the available resources are few; more small deposits, less large deposits; more lean ore, less rich ore; more concomitant deposits, fewer independent deposits; (2) With the continuous growth of silver application field, domestic mine resources and renewable resources cannot meet the demand, so it is necessary to import silver ore and other concentrates (used to produce silver by−products, such as lead concentrates, zinc concentrates, etc.) to supplement the gap; (3) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for silver in China will continue to grow, from 5800 t to 9500 t, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.7%; (4) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for industrial silver in China will grow rapidly, from 3800 t to 7000 t, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4%. Photovoltaic systems are the main field driving the growth of industrial silver demand; (5) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for non−industrial silver in China will grow slowly, from 2000 t to 2500 t, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7%.
ConclusionsBased on the above research results, in order to promote the development of the silver industry chain, the following suggestions are put forward: (1) The position and role of silver in the future national economy should be paid more attention; (2) A variety of ways should be adopted to ensure the supply capacity of silver resources; (3) The added value of industrial silver products should be improved to provide guarantee for energy transformation and high−end manufacturing by increasing technological innovation and carrying out deep processing; (4) The national and private silver reserve and security system should be established to avoid large fluctuations in silver prices.
Highlights:(1) According to the resource characteristics and consumption status of silver in China, the demand is predicted using the S−curve and ARIMA models; (2) The two−phase S−curve wave of industrial silver consumption in developed countries was summarized and proposed, and the law is applied to the demand forecast of industrial silver in China.
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1 ➊中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所. 2016. 中国银矿资源2020—2030年保障程度论证报告[R].2 ➋中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所. 2021. 2035年中国35种矿产资源需求预测报告[R]. -
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图 2 1964—2020年中国矿山银产量（a）和再生银回收量（b）（数据来源：USGS、世界白银协会）
Figure 2. Mining production of silver (a) and supply of secondary silver (b) in China from 1964 to 2020 (Data source: USGS and The Silver Institute)
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图 3 1990—2020年中国银消费量及消费结构（数据来源：世界白银协会）
Figure 3. Silver consumption and consumption structure in China from 1990 to 2020 (Data source: The Silver Institute)
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图 4 2000—2020年中国银及其制品贸易量（数据来源：联合国贸易署）
此处为折算金属量；*表示部分产品进出口的数据均未获取
Figure 4. Trade volume of silver and silver products in China (Data source: UN Comtrade)
Normalize the amount of silver metal in the data; * Data on the import and export of some products has not been obtained
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图 6 人均资源消费与人均GDP的“S”形曲线图
Figure 6. S-curve rules of per capita mineral resources consumption and per capita GDP
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图 7 人均工业银消费（a）、工业银消费强度（b）与人均GDP关系图（数据来源：GGDC、世界白银协会、联合国贸易署）
Figure 7. Relationships between GDP per captial and industrial silver consumption per capita (a), industrial silver consumption intensity (b) (Data source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre, The Silver Institute, UN Comtrade)
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图 8 人均工业银消费和人均GDP的“S”形拟合（日本，美国）（数据来源：GGDC、世界白银协会、联合国贸易署）
Figure 8. S-curve simulation of per capita industrial silver consumption and GDP (Japan, USA) (Data source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre, The Silver Institute, UN Comtrade)
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图 9 单位光伏用银量和在工业银中的占比（数据来源：世界白银协会）
Figure 9. Silver consumption per unit photovoltaic and its proportion in industrial silver (Data source: The Silver Institute)
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图 10 2022—2050年中国工业银消费量预测结果
Figure 10. Forecasting results of China's industrial silver consumption from 2021 to 2050
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图 11 1990—2020年中国非工业银消费量和国际银价（数据来源：世界白银协会，伦敦金属交易所）
Figure 11. Consumption of China's non industrial silver and global silver price from 1990 to 2020 (Data source: The Silver Institute, London Metal Exchange)
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图 12 1900—2020年国际银价的ARIMA模型拟合结果（数据来源：伦敦金属交易所）
Figure 12. ARIMA simulation results of world silver price from1900 to 2020 (Data source: London Metal Exchange)
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图 13 2022—2035年中国非工业银消费量预测结果
Figure 13. Forecasting results of China's non-industrial silver consumption from 2022 to 2035
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图 15 中国银消费与价格关系
Figure 15. The relationship between silver consumption and price in China
表 1 中国银矿床主要工业类型
Table 1 Major industrial types of silver deposits in China
工业类型 成矿地质特征 矿体形状 规模及品位 常见金属矿物 矿床实例 碳酸盐岩型（铅锌） 产于大理岩、白云岩、灰岩、不纯灰岩中，大致沿层产出 层状、似层状、透镜状等 大、中、小型均有，品位贫富兼有 方铅矿、闪锌矿、黄铁矿、黄铜矿等 广东凡口铅锌（银）矿 泥岩–碎屑岩型 产于含碳质黑色页岩、泥岩夹薄层泥灰岩中，大致沿层产出 层状、似层状、脉状等 大、中、小型均有，品位贫到中等 黄铁矿、辉硒银矿、硒银矿、硫银锗矿等 湖北白果园银矿 海相火山岩、火山–沉积岩型 产于凝灰岩、熔岩及与碎屑岩互层带中，基本上沿层产出 层状、似层状、透镜状等 大、中、小型均有，品位较富 黄铁矿、方铅矿、闪锌矿、黄铜矿等 甘肃白银厂小铁矿银矿 千枚岩、片岩型 产于碳质绢云石英片岩、含碳绢云千枚岩、绢云石英片岩中，沿层或层间破碎带产出 层状、似层状、透镜状、扁豆状 大、中型为主，品位较富 方铅矿、闪锌矿、黄铜矿、黄铁矿等 河南破山银矿 陆相火山和次火山岩型 产于火山岩或次火山岩中的断裂、裂隙带或斑岩体接触带外侧围岩中 脉状、不规则似层状、透镜状等 大、中、小型均有，品位贫到富均有 黄铁矿、辉银矿、螺硫银矿、深红银矿等 内蒙古额仁陶勒盖银矿 脉状型（与铅锌矿工业类型相同） 产于各种围岩构造破碎带中的脉状银（铅锌）矿 脉状、复脉状、不规则似层状、透镜状 大、中、小型均有，品位较富 黄铁矿、辉银矿、自然银、硫铜银矿等 内蒙古赤峰官地银矿 
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表 2 中国银矿查明资源储量分布
Table 2 Measured reserves distribution of silver in China
区域划分 矿区规模划分 成矿时代划分 矿床类型划分 区域 资源量分布 矿区规模 资源量分布 成矿时代 资源量分布 矿床类型 资源量分布 华北 28% 大型 33% 中生代 68% 伴生型 42.2% 华东 21% 中型 28% 晚古生代 16% 热液型 28.5% 西南 18% 小型 39% 新生代 6% 矽卡岩型 8.6% 中南 18% 元古宙 5% 变质岩型 7.4% 西北 10% 早古生代 4% 陆相火山–次火山岩型 5.4% 东北 4% 其他 1% 沉积岩型 4.2% 海相火山岩型 3.4% 风化淋积型 0.3% 注：数据来源于张大权等, 2015; 江彪等, 2015。
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表 3 1990—2020年中国非工业银消费量和国际白银价格数据特征
Table 3 Characteristics of China's non industrial silver consumption and world silver price from 1990 to 2020
方差 标准差 ADF值 ADF的P值 泊松相关 肯尔德相关 非工业银消费量 8.09×105 899.20 −0.28 0.54 白银价格 70.77 7.41 −0.02 0.64 0.94** 0.73** 注：**表示在5%水平上显著相关。
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表 4 ARIMA模型拟合统计量
Table 4 ARIMA simulation statistics
R2 RMSE MAPE MAE MaxAPE MaxAE 正态化BIC 0.89 2.2 23.80 0.99 98.18 11.61 1.78 注：R2、RMSE、MAPE、MAE、MaxAPE、MaxAE和BIC分别表示决定系数、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差、平均绝对误差、最大绝对百分比误差、最大绝对误差和贝叶斯信息准则。
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表 5 2022—2035年国际银价预测结果
Table 5 Forecast results of world silver price from 2022 to 2035
年份 预测值 置信下限** 置信上限** 年份 预测值 置信下限** 置信上限** 2020 20.55 2028 23.74 12.12 35.36 2021 21.51 17.15 25.86 2029 24.23 11.99 36.47 2022 20.7 13.74 27.66 2030 24.73 11.9 37.55 2023 21.39 13.57 29.2 2031 25.23 11.84 38.61 2024 21.81 13.08 30.55 2032 25.73 11.81 39.66 2025 22.29 12.76 31.83 2033 26.24 11.8 40.69 2026 22.77 12.49 33.05 2034 26.76 11.81 41.71 2027 23.25 12.28 34.22 2035 27.28 11.85 42.71 注：单位为美元/盎司；**代表95%的置信水平。
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表 6 中国非工业银消费/需求量和国际白银价格（y−x）函数拟合结果
Table 6 Simulation results of non-industrial silver consumption/demand and world silver price (y−x)
拟合关系 拟合方程 R2 MAE MAPE RME 线性拟合 y=100.35x−134.65 0.88 211.23 0.35 304.64 指数拟合 y=188.25e0.11x 0.54 551.32 0.47 1144.64 对数拟合 y=1217.5ln(x)−1168.3 0.89 198.01 0.32 293.37 多项式拟合（2阶） y=−1.66x2+154.2x−425.51 0.90 170.02 0.27 274.00 多项式拟合（3阶） y=−0.059x3+1.585x2+105.68x−254.26 0.91 169.71 0.25 272.68 多项式拟合（4阶） y=−0.026x4+1.9x3−48.02x2+587.38x−1636.3 0.92 169.58 0.30 254.57
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表 7 中国银需求预测结果及对比（t）
Table 7 Forecasting results and comparison of silver demand in China (t)
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