Evolution of water resources and changes of ecological environment pattern in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area in the past 40 years
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摘要:研究目的
受气候变化与人类活动的双重影响，亟需深化对粤港澳大湾区水资源演变规律的认识，以期为实现区域水资源的可持续管理提供科学依据和决策支持。
研究方法本文采用定性与定量相结合、历史文献资料的深度挖掘以及多源水资源监测数据，全面分析大湾区自1980年以来近40年间的水文、降水、地表覆盖等水资源环境格局变化及其区域分异规律。
研究结果大湾区水资源状况总体上呈现"西多东少、北多南少"的分布特征，1980—2022年平均气温22.2℃，降雨2022.1 mm, 主要变化周期约4.1 a。西江、北江、东江干流平均径流量分别为11231.09 m3/s、1479.63 m3/s、809.42 m3/s，径流变差系数介于0.19~0.27，气候格局呈现出暖湿化的趋势，水体总量出现减少趋势，植被覆盖整体上升但局部出现退化，显著退化面积6225.98 km2，改善面积9537.31 km2；水体（含湿地）面积变化速率呈现“缓慢萎缩−加速萎缩−稳步增长−缓慢增长”的阶段性特征。
结论提出具有开发远景的41处应急备用水源地，允许开采量达234.26万m3/d。大湾区具有水资源与经济发展的不协调、水生态服务功能退化、水资源时空分布不均及以地表水为主的供水水源结构单一等特点。
创新点:（1）全面分析大湾区自1980年以来的水文、降水、地表覆盖等水资源环境格局变化及其区域分异规律；（2）大湾区水资源状况总体上呈现出"西多东少、北多南少"的分布特征，水体（含湿地）面积变化速率呈现“缓慢萎缩−加速萎缩−稳步增长−缓慢增长”的阶段性特征，提出具有开发远景的41处应急备用水源地，允许开采量达234.26万m3/d。
Abstract:This paper is the result of hydrogeological survey engineering.
ObjectiveDue to the dual impacts of climate change and human activities, there is an urgent need to deepen the understanding of the evolution of water resources in the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, with a view to providing a scientific basis and decision−making support for the realization of the sustainable management of regional water resources.
MethodsThis paper employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, leveraging in−depth analysis of historical literature alongside multi−source water resource monitoring data to comprehensively examine changes in hydrology, precipitation, land cover, and other environmental factors related to water resources in the Greater Bay Area over the past 40 years (1980–2020). It also explores the regional patterns of differentiation in these changes.
ResultsOur findings reveal a general water resource distribution trend of "abundance in the west and north, scarcity in the east and south," with an average temperature of 22.2℃ and annual precipitation of 2022.1 mm from 1980 to 2022. The study observes a major cyclical change every 4.1 years. The average runoff of the Xijiang, Beijiang, and Dongjiang Rivers is quantified, alongside the variation in runoff coefficients, reflecting a warm and humid climatic trend. Concurrently, the total volume of water bodies exhibits a declining trajectory, while vegetation cover overall shows an increase but with local degradation.
ConclusionsThe study identifies 41 potential emergency backup water sources, with a sustainable extraction capacity of 2342600 m3/day.It highlights the ongoing mismatch between water resources and economic development in the Greater Bay Area, the reduction of water ecosystem service functions, the spatial and temporal imbalances in water resource distribution, and the region's over−reliance on a predominantly surface water−based supply structure.
Highlights:(1) This comprehensive examination sheds light on the evolution of environmental patterns related to hydrology, precipitation, and surface coverage within the Greater Bay Area since 1980, elucidating the regional divergences in these patterns; (2) The distribution of water resources across the Greater Bay Area typically exhibits a pattern characterized by abundance in the west and scarcity in the east, with a greater availability in the north compared to the south. The dynamic changes in the expanse of aquatic territories, including wetlands, undergo a phased progression marked by initial gradual reduction, followed by a phase of accelerated contraction, transitioning into a period of stable expansion, and culminating in a phase of gradual increase. In this context, we have identified 41 potential emergency backup water sources, with a collective feasible extraction volume amounting to 2342600 cubic meters per day.
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1. 研究目的（Objective）
近年来，新疆阿尔金西段萤石找矿取得的重大突破。萤石矿主要分布于卡尔恰尔—阔什区域性大断裂（阿中断裂）以南的晚奥陶世碱长花岗岩侵入体内及其外接触带附近的富钙质岩系中，圈定了卡尔恰尔—小白河沟、盖吉克—亚干布阳、布拉克北—皮亚孜达坂、托盖里克东南—阿其克南4条沿北东向断裂分布的萤石矿带，整个远景区CaF2资源量已达3500万t以上。中国地质调查局西安矿产资源调查中心于2021—2023年对阿尔金西段小白河沟—克鲁求干道班一带开展了矿产调查评价，在小白河沟地区新发现热液充填型萤石矿产地1处，估算萤石的潜在资源达大型规模，对于拓展阿尔金地区萤石矿床具有借鉴意义。
2. 研究方法（Methods）
在对小白河沟地区以往地物化遥成果资料综合研究基础上，结合本次遥感蚀变异常提取和构造解译圈定了重点工作区，通过开展1∶10000地质草测、1∶10000岩石地球化学剖面测量、1∶500地质剖面测量、槽探及钻探等工作，在小白河沟共圈定萤石矿体21条，实现了找矿突破。通过典型矿床对比，总结了区内萤石矿成矿规律，初步建立了找矿模式，分析了区域萤石成矿潜力及找矿前景。
3. 研究结果（Results）
研究区出露地层基底主要为古元古界阿尔金岩群a岩组和b岩组，二者呈构造面理接触关系。阿尔金岩群a岩组为萤石主要赋矿地层，该岩组出露的岩石类型主要为黑云斜长片麻岩、黑云二长片麻岩、斜长变粒岩、石英岩、大理岩，局部夹有角闪斜长片麻岩（图1b）。区内断裂较为发育，期次较多，主要呈北北东向、北东向、南东东向，南东东向断裂主要与区内的萤石矿化关系密切。地层中岩脉极为发育，在接触带可见岩石具萤石化、钾长石化、碳酸盐化、绿帘石化、硅化等围岩蚀变。
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图 1 区域构造位置图（a）、矿区地质简图（b）、勘探线剖面图（c）及萤石矿岩心（d）Figure 1. Regional structure location map (a), brief geological diagram of ore district (b), prospecting line profile map (c) and cores specimen of fluorite deposit (d)在小白河沟共圈定萤石矿体21条（图1c），长100~1130 m，厚度0.7~4.68 m，矿体沿走向延续性较好，沿倾向呈透镜体状，断续产出，斜切岩体和变质岩，有“膨大缩小”变化，部分呈“透镜体”、“扁豆体”断续分布，主矿体旁侧发育少数分枝。矿体品位23.2%~82.4%，平均品位32.2%，钻孔深部验证效果良好。矿石主要以块状、纹层状为主，主要矿物为萤石，局部发育方解石、带云母和少量石英。萤石以紫色、紫黑色为主，少量呈白色或绿色，具粗晶结构、自形—半自形及他形粒状结构。矿石工业类型主要是CaF2型、CaF2–CaCO3型。围岩蚀变以碳酸盐化、带云母化、钾化、黄铁矿化、绿帘石化、角闪石化等为主。初步估算CaF2资源量117.42万t，具大型萤石矿床远景。
4. 结论（Conclusions）
（1）小白河沟萤石矿是阿尔金西段萤石找矿新发现，这一发现拓展了区内萤石矿向西延伸的空间，同时本次工作区内多数矿体走向和深部延伸均未封边，仍具有较大找矿潜力。
（2）本工作发现了品位较富的大型萤石矿，拓宽了区域找矿思路，具有重要借鉴意义，同时为阿尔金瓦石峡南—卡尔恰尔萤石锂大型资源基地建设提供了有力支撑。
5. 基金项目（Fund support）
本文为中国地质调查局项目（DD20190143、DD20211551、DD20243309）、陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目（2023−JC−YB−241）、中国地质调查局自然资源综合调查指挥中心科技创新基金项目（KC20230011）联合资助的成果。
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图 1 粤港澳大湾区地理位置及水系
Figure 1. Geographic location and water system in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area
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图 2 粤港澳大湾区1980—2020年气温变化趋势格局
Figure 2. Patterns of temperature change trends in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area from 1980 to 2020
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图 4 粤港澳大湾区1980—2020年降水变化趋势格局
Figure 4. Trend patterns of precipitation changes in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area from 1980 to 2020
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图 6 大湾区主要河流水文格局变化
Figure 6. Changes in hydrologic patterns of major rivers in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area
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图 7 大湾区水资源量变化
Figure 7. Changes in the amount of water resources in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area
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图 8 2000—2020粤港澳大湾区植被覆盖度显著性变化空间分布
Figure 8. Spatial distribution of significant changes in vegetation cover in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2020
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图 9 粤港澳大湾区1980—2000年水体湿地格局变化
Figure 9. Changes of wetland patterns in water bodies in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area from 1980 to 2000
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图 10 粤港澳大湾区2000—2020年水体湿地格局变化
Figure 10. Changes of wetland patterns in water bodies in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2020
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图 11 大湾区2020年人口密度分布
Figure 11. Distribution of population density in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area in 2020
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图 12 大湾区人口与供水总量
Figure 12. Total population and water supply in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area
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图 13 粤港澳大湾区应急水源地分布
Figure 13. Distribution of emergency water sources in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area
表 1 大湾区水体面积变化特征
Table 1 Characteristics of water body area changes in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area
时间 阶段性特征 变化量/km2 变化率/(km2/a) 1980—1990 缓慢萎缩 −218 −21.8 1990—2000 加速萎缩 −463 −46.3 2000—2010 稳步增长 218 21.8 2010—2020 缓慢增长 119 11.9 合计 −344 −8.6 
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表 2 主要水源地靶区允许开采量
Table 2 Allowable extraction in the target area of the main water source
所属地级市 水源地名称 面积/
km2允许开采量/
(104m3/d)地下水类型 江门市 开平—恩平 412.50 26.66 孔隙潜水−承压水 惠州市 水口—良井 278.00 15.05 孔隙水 肇庆市 怀集—大岗 237.30 15.03 覆盖型岩溶水 广州市 花都—新华 169.65 13.29 覆盖型岩溶水 肇庆市 四会—大旺 369.40 12.29 孔隙潜水 惠州市 龙溪—博罗 364.80 12.28 孔隙潜水−承压水 广州市 龙潭—神岗 235.30 11.50 孔隙潜水 佛山市 丹灶—西樵 312.40 10.32 孔隙潜水
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