Ecosystem service function and security pattern of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2050
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摘要:研究目的
在全球气候变化和人类活动不断扩展的背景下，自然生态系统及其提供的服务功能面临着日益严重的威胁和衰退。为应对这一挑战，确定并保护对生态可持续性具有重大价值的关键地点变得至关重要。生态安全格局是指一种全面策略和方法，旨在保障区域生态可持续性。
研究方法本研究基于In−VEST模型、PLUS模型和电路理论等，对西北干旱区天山地区生态系统服务与生态安全格局（ESP）的动态变化进行了评价。
研究结果1990—2050年土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）空间分布上基本稳定。近30年来总转换面积为32.52×103 km2，主要是荒地和草地之间的转化。与2020年相比，2050年自然增长（ND）、生态保护（EP）和城市发展（UD）情景下的土地总转换面积分别为21.43×103 km2、23.09×103 km2、22.87×103 km2，其中林地面积净增加的最多，主要由草地转化而成。EP情景下林地、草地和水体面积增加。其他两种情景下建设用地和耕地面积大幅扩大。与ND和UD情景相比，EP情景的生态系统服务功能更大。1990—2050年天山地区ESP存在明显的空间差异，较大的生态源和较小的阻力廊道主要分布在天山地区生态系统服务功能较高的中部和北部。相反，破碎的生态源和较大的抗性廊道大多分布在被沙地、裸地或山地阻隔的西部地区。东南部为荒漠地区，没有生态源，缺乏生态廊道。近30年来，生态源区面积减少了1.84×103 km2，呈现破碎化趋势，生态网络更加复杂。与2020年相比，2050年EP情景下的生态源面积和夹点面积分别增加10.53×103 km2和0.11×103 km2，生态障碍带点面积减少0.38×103 km2。除EP场景外，其余两种情景的生态源面积也有所增加，但低于EP场景。
结论生态保护情景在塑造LUCC的过程中起到了重要的作用，对维护生态安全和生态系统的完整性具有极大的意义。
创新点:（1）通过量化过去和未来生态系统服务来构建生态源和阻力面；（2）对未来土地利用类型模拟，构建2050年不同情境下的生态安全格局；（3）揭示1990—2050年天山地区不同时期的生态安全格局动态变化特征。
Abstract:This paper is the result of ecological geological survey engineering.
ObjectiveUnder the background of global climate change and the continuous expansion of human activities, natural ecosystems and their service functions are facing increasingly serious threats and recessions.In order to address this challenge, it is critical to identify and protect key sites that are of great value to ecological sustainability. Ecological security pattern refers to a comprehensive strategy and method to ensure regional ecological sustainability.
MethodsBased on the In−VEST model, PLUS model and circuit theory, this study evaluated the dynamic changes of ecosystem services and ecological security pattern (ESP) in the Tianshan Mountains in the arid region of Northwest China.
ResultsThe spatial distribution of land use type (LUCC) was basically stable from 1990 to 2050. In the past 30 years, the total conversion area was 32.52×103 km2, which was mainly the conversion between wasteland and grassland. Compared with 2020, the total land conversion areas under the scenarios of Natural development scenario (ND), Ecological protection scenario (EP) and Urban development scenario (UD) in 2050 are 21.43×103 km2, 23.09×103 km2 and 22.87×103 km2, respectively. Among them, the net increase of forest land area is the most, which is mainly transformed from grassland. The area of forest land, grassland and water body increased under EP scenario. In the other two scenarios, the area of construction land and cultivated land has expanded significantly. Compared with ND and UD scenarios, the ecosystem service function of EP scenario is greater. There are obvious spatial differences in ESP in the Tianshan Mountains from 1990 to 2050. The larger ecological sources and smaller resistance corridors are mainly distributed in the central and northern parts of the Tianshan Mountains with higher ecosystem service functions. On the contrary, broken ecological sources and large resistance corridors are mostly distributed in the western region blocked by sand, bare land or mountains. The southeast is a desert area, with no ecological source and lack of ecological corridors. In the past 30 years, the area of ecological source area has decreased by 1.84×103 km2, showing a trend of fragmentation, and the ecological network is more complex. Compared with 2020, the area of ecological source and pinch point under EP scenario in 2050 will increase by 10.53×103 km2 and 0.11×103 km2 respectively, and the area of ecological barrier zone will decrease by 0.38×103 km2. In addition to the EP scenario, the ecological source area of the other two scenarios also increased, but lower than the EP scenario.
ConclusionsEcological protection scenarios play a vital role in shaping LUCC and are of great significance for maintaining ecological security and ecosystem integrity.
Highlights:(1) Constructing ecological sources and resistance surfaces by quantifying past and future ecosystem services. (2) Simulating the future land use types and constructing the ecological security pattern under different scenarios in 2050. (3) Revealing the dynamic change characteristics of ecological security pattern in different periods of Tianshan Mountains from 1990 to 2050.
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图 1 研究区位置示意图（基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2019)1823号的标准地图绘制，底图边界无修改，后图同）
Figure 1. Location diagram of the study area (Based on the standard map drawing of the standard map service website GS (2019) 1823 of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the boundary of the base map is not modified, and the following diagram is the same)
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图 3 天山地区土地利用模拟归一化驱动因子空间分布（驱动因素的原始数据经过归一化处理，以消除因素之间的量纲影响）
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of normalized driving factors of land use simulation in Tianshan area (The original data of driving factors are normalized to eliminate the dimensional influence between factors)
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图 4 1990—2050天山地区土地利用类型空间分布特征
CD—耕地；FT—林地；GD—草地；WR—水体；SE—雪/冰；BN—荒地；IP—不透水面；WD—湿地
Figure 4. Spatial distribution characteristics of land use types in Tianshan Mountains from 1990 to 2050
CD–Cultivated; FT–Forest; GD–Grassland; WR–Water; SE–Snow/Ice; BN–Barren; IP–Impervious; WD–Wetland
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图 5 1990—2050年土地利用转换弦线图
（箭头的宽度表示土地面积转换的相互作用比例）
Figure 5. Land use conversion chord chart from 1990 to 2050
(The width of the arrow represents the interaction ratio of land area conversion)
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图 6 1990—2050年碳储量空间分布
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of carbon storage from 1990 to 2050
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图 8 1990—2050年土壤保持量空间分布
Figure 8. Spatial distribution of soil conservation from 1990 to 2050
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图 9 1990—2050生境质量空间分布
Figure 9. Spatial distribution of habitat quality from 1990 to 2050
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图 10 1990—2050年天山地区生态系统服务功能的时间变化
ND—自然增长型；EP—生态保护型；UD—城市发展型
Figure 10. Temporal variation of ecosystem service function in Tianshan Mountains from 1990 to 2050
ND–Natural growth ; EP–Ecological protection type ; UD–Urban development type
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图 11 天山地区阻力面空间分布特征
Figure 11. Spatial distribution characteristics of resistance surface in Tianshan area
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图 12 1990—2050年天山地区生态安全格局空间分布
Figure 12. Spatial distribution of ecological security pattern in Tianshan Mountains from 1990 to 2050
表 1 数据来源及描述
Table 1 Data sources and description
数据 描述 数据来源 1990、2000、2010、2020年土地利用类型数据 空间分辨率为30 m https://zenodo.org 温度/℃ 逐月平均温度数据，空间分辨率为1 km 国家青藏高原科学数据中心https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/home 降水/mm 逐月平均温度数据，空间分辨率为1 km 降雨侵蚀性因子 反映研究区的降雨强度和时间 通过降雨数据计算获得 土壤数据 用于计算植物可利用水分（PAWC）和土壤侵蚀性因子 国家青藏高原科学数据中心https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/home 地上碳密度/(t/hm2) 地上生物量的碳密度 查阅相关文献（许文强等, 2016；Lu et al., 2022；如克亚·热合曼等, 2022） 地下碳密度/(t/hm2) 地下生物量的碳密度 土壤碳密度/(t/hm2) 土壤的碳密度 死亡有机质/(t/hm2) 死亡有机物碳密度 数字高程模型/m 用于计算坡向、坡度、地形起伏，空间分辨率为30 m 地理空间数据云
https://www.gscloud.cn国内生产总值/(万元/km2) 栅格单元所在的县级行政区单元的GDP统计值，空间分辨率为1 km 中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心 https://www.resdc.cn 人口网格化数据集/(人/km2) 栅格单元所在的县级行政区单元的人口统计值，空间分辨率为1 km 道路数据 计算到道路的距离 OpenStreetMap Data extract (https://www.openstreetmap.org) 河网数据 计算到河道的距离 政府位置 计算到政府的距离 全国地理信息资源目录服务系统
https://www.webmap.cn
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表 2 不同土地利用类型的碳密度（t/hm2）
Table 2 Carbon density of different land use types (t/hm2)
土地利用
类型地上
碳密度地下
碳密度土壤
碳密度死亡有机质
数据耕地 2.9 3.44 76.6 1.24 林地 30.89 9.12 107.82 2.48 草地 0.49 4.29 75.54 0.22 水体 0.64 0.45 0 0 雪/冰 0 0 0 0 荒地 0.45 0.87 38.55 0 不透水面 2.26 1.45 0 0 湿地 1.85 1.48 212.68 0
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表 3 生境对各胁迫因子的敏感性
Table 3 Sensitivity of habitats to various stress factors
地类代码 地类 生境适宜性 城市 铁路 主干道 次干道 1 耕地 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2 林地 1 1 0.7 0.6 0.5 3 草地 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 4 水体 1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 5 雪/冰 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 6 荒地 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0 7 不透水面 0 0 0 0 0.2 8 湿地 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6
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表 4 1990—2050年研究区土地利用类型面积变化（103 km2）
Table 4 Changes in land use types in the study area from 1990 to 2050 ( 103 km2 )
土地利用类型 1990年 2020年 2050年 转化面积(2020—2050)年 ND EP UD ND EP UD 耕地 12.83 17.57 21.91 15.23 21.92 4.34 −2.33 4.35 林地 6.84 12.52 17.83 19.97 17.79 5.31 7.46 5.27 草地 180.02 165.06 154.96 168.25 154.87 −10.10 3.19 −10.19 水体 1.79 2.50 3.13 2.51 3.10 0.64 0.01 0.60 雪/冰 13.66 12.37 12.33 13.07 12.61 −0.03 0.71 0.24 荒地 247.56 251.64 251.06 242.61 250.39 −0.58 −9.03 −1.25 不透水面 0.13 0.94 1.19 0.75 1.73 0.25 −0.18 0.79 湿地 0.23 0.48 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.18 0.18 0.18 总计 463.07 463.07 463.07 463.07 463.07 注：ND—自然增长型；EP—生态保护型；UD—城市发展型。
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表 5 天山地区生态安全格局特征
Table 5 Characteristics of ecological security pattern in Tianshan area
类别 1990年 2020年 2050年 ND EP UD 生态源 数量/个 190 258 284 285 286 面积/(103 km2) 77.05 75.21 80.44 85.74 79.93 生态廊道 数量/个 390 532 576 580 589 长度/km 9083 10466 8926 9634 9407 生态夹点 面积/103 km2 1.62 1.57 1.41 1.68 1.54 生态障碍点 面积/103 km2 1.21 1.39 1.52 1.01 1.41 注：ND—自然增长型；EP—生态保护型；UD—城市发展型。
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表 6 1990—2050年天山地区生态源所处地类的变化
Table 6 Changes of land types of ecological sources in Tianshan Mountains from 1990 to 2050
类型 1990年面积
/(103 km2)2020年面积
/(103 km2)2050年面积/(103 km2) NG EP UD 耕地 5.20 6.93 7.90 5.55 7.82 林地 0.39 2.67 8.59 8.64 8.62 草地 66.63 58.60 55.77 63.83 55.84 雪/冰 2.97 2.76 2.95 2.41 2.56 荒地 1.86 3.87 4.62 4.71 4.50 总计 77.05 74.83 79.83 85.14 79.34
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