Characteristics and demand analysis of silver resources in China under the background of new energy

PAN Zhaoshuai; ZHANG Zhaozhi; CHE Dong; ZHANG Tao; ZHANG Lanying; YANG Wei

doi:10.12029/gc20221113002

GEOLOGY IN CHINA > 2024 > 51(5): 1554-1569. > DOI: 10.12029/gc20221113002

Pan Zhaoshuai, Zhang Zhaozhi, Che Dong, Zhang Tao, Zhang Lanying, Yang Wei. 2024. Characteristics and demand analysis of silver resources in China under the background of new energy[J]. Geology in China, 51(5): 1554−1569. DOI: 10.12029/gc20221113002

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Characteristics and demand analysis of silver resources in China under the background of new energy

1.
Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Assessment, Institute of Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing 100037, China
2.
Development and Research Center of China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China
3.
Metallurgical Price Branch of China Price Association, Beijing 100730, China
4.
Metallurgical Industry Information Center, Beijing 100010, China

Funds: Supported by the project of China Geological Survey (No.DD20221694).

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Author Bio:
PAN Zhaoshuai, male, born in 1994, Ph.D. candidate, engaged in the resource industry economy; E-mail: 996817743@qq.com
Corresponding author:
ZHANG Zhaozhi, male, born in 1967, researcher, engaged in the mineral resource industry economy; E-mail: 1264124110@qq.com.
Received Date: November 12, 2022
Revised Date: January 03, 2023
Available Online: February 03, 2024

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
Objective
Silver, as an important precious metal, has both industrial and financial properties and is crucial to promote national economic and social development. It is important to systematically analyze the characteristics of silver resources and demand trends for emission reduction and resource security in China.
Methods
From the perspective of the development of the silver industry, the characteristics of the application, geology, supply and demand and market of silver are summarized in China. According to the demand driven difference between industrial silver and non−industrial silver, the demand of silver is predicted using S−curve and ARIMA models in China from 2022 to 2035.
Results
Based on the resource status and demand forecast results of silver mines, the following results are obtained: (1) Silver mines have the geological characteristics of "four more and four less". It means that the total amount of resources is large and the available resources are few; more small deposits, less large deposits; more lean ore, less rich ore; more concomitant deposits, fewer independent deposits; (2) With the continuous growth of silver application field, domestic mine resources and renewable resources cannot meet the demand, so it is necessary to import silver ore and other concentrates (used to produce silver by−products, such as lead concentrates, zinc concentrates, etc.) to supplement the gap; (3) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for silver in China will continue to grow, from 5800 t to 9500 t, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.7%; (4) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for industrial silver in China will grow rapidly, from 3800 t to 7000 t, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4%. Photovoltaic systems are the main field driving the growth of industrial silver demand; (5) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for non−industrial silver in China will grow slowly, from 2000 t to 2500 t, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7%.
Conclusions
Based on the above research results, in order to promote the development of the silver industry chain, the following suggestions are put forward: (1) The position and role of silver in the future national economy should be paid more attention; (2) A variety of ways should be adopted to ensure the supply capacity of silver resources; (3) The added value of industrial silver products should be improved to provide guarantee for energy transformation and high−end manufacturing by increasing technological innovation and carrying out deep processing; (4) The national and private silver reserve and security system should be established to avoid large fluctuations in silver prices.
- silver,
- resource characteristics,
- demand forecast,
- new energy background,
- mineral exploration engineering,
- China
Highlights
(1) According to the resource characteristics and consumption status of silver in China, the demand is predicted using the S−curve and ARIMA models; (2) The two−phase S−curve wave of industrial silver consumption in developed countries was summarized and proposed, and the law is applied to the demand forecast of industrial silver in China.

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References (55)

References

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Characteristics and demand analysis of silver resources in China under the background of new energy